Dynamics of elements’ prices
After the mercenaries’ guild announcement (7 months ago) many players predicted that elements’ prices will fall down. The purpose of this article is to analyze the market in order to see whether these predictions are correct or not.
First of all, let’s take average elements’ prices during 3 months before the announcement:
We will compare further changes with these values.
We are not taking into account single price drops. After the announcement abrasive price didn’t change for a long time but later it fell down to 210 . Abrasive became 20% cheaper. However, its price started to increase again. For now, abrasive price is 255-260 .
Here is a chart showing its dynamics:
Conclusion: Even though abrasive price fell, it got back to the previous values.
After the announcement, there were huge price drops for viper venom. At first, it was 150. A bit later pricedropped to the normal values and then price raised again to 170 (itwas 65% higher than price before the announcement).Price became normal in a month and a half and then started to fall down. For now, viper venom is 70-73 and it’s still getting cheaper.
Chart:
Conclusion: The price increased after the announcement and then it got cheaper. Current price for viper venom is 30% cheaper than it was before.
During the first week after the announcementtiger’s claw price was stable. It was even a bit higher than before. But 10 days later it fell down to 1580 (it is 385 less than normal price). In the next 5 days it stabilized up to 1890. Just like viper venom, tiger’s claw price started to fall down. The lowest price before September was 990. Then it started to grow up during September and later, in the middle of October, it got back to 1000. For now, it’s a nominal price for Tiger’s claw and sometimes it drops to 930-950.
Chart:
Conclusion: Tiger’s claw became twice cheaper. But the price is not stable yet.
The price was stable for a week and then it abruptly fell down to 2545. It means that actually Tiger’s claw lost 30% of its previous price. In the next week it reached maximum point of 3150 and after that it started to decrease. It became 47.5% cheaper at the end of August. During September it started to grow up and reached 2500. At the end of September it started to decrease and became 1890-1900 again.
The price is still falling.
Conclusion: Tiger’s claw lost 47.5% of its pre-announcement value. And, probably, it will fall again.
The most expensive element – moonstone.
Even small price changes (in %) will affect the market. First week after the announcement it was 10000 with small drops and increases. A bit later it fell down to 9730. In a couple of days it reached the point of 7690. During the next week it became 1000 higher and then started to decrease. Before September it was 6040. As we already know, priceincreased during September. In September moonstone cost 7300 but now it costs 6200.
Conclusion: Moonstone became 38.5% cheaper. Probably, it will get cheaper in future..
Fire crystal
Dynamics of fire crystal price was a bit different. After one week being stable, its price dropped to 1600. Then it grew up to 2050. After that it was falling till the end of August. It became 54% cheaper but usual September growth made its price normal again (2300). Unfortunately, it was 2300 for a while and fell down to 1800. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to grow again
Chart:
Conclusion: Fire crystal became 27.5% cheaper and it’s still getting cheaper.
Meteorite shard. Surprisingly, after the announcement meteorite shard didn’t become cheaper. Moreover it became 17% more expensive during the change process. Immediately after the announcement it cost 1700 which was 250 cheaper than normal value. Despite many price drops it cost 1700-1800 for a long time. Then, in September it cost 2300 which is higher than pre-announcement price. Obviously, later it became cheaper again and now its price is around 1920.
Chart:
Conclusion: Just like abrasive, meteorite shard managed to save its pre-announcement price.
Witchbloom/
Just like abrasive, witchbloom chart looks like a cardiogram. But unlike abrasive, witchbloom became much cheaper. Till the middle of September its price was around 80-95. But then it started to fall and it’s still falling. For now the price is 71-72.
Chart:
Conclusion:Witch bloom became 21% cheaper.
Windflower
Its dynamics is more like meteorite shard. There was a small weekly growth to 3685, then abrupt fall to 2600. After that it grew again up to 3300 and then there was a long way falling. It stopped falling down when it reached 2100 which was 42.5% cheaper than the nominal value. Typical September growth stabilized it to 3250-3300 but after that it started to become cheaper. For now the price is 2850.
Chart:
Conclusion: JIt became 22% cheaper and may fall again.
Fern flower.
Fern flower price was growing during the first week after the announcement. But after that there was a long way down. In the middle of August it was 90. Then it was hesitating from 80 to 100 with some drops. For now its price stabilized and it’s 80-85.
Chart:
Conclusion: Fern flower became 48.5% cheaper.
Its dynamics is quite simple. It was getting cheaper for the whole time after the announcement. During September it wasn’t falling and stabilized for a while. Unfortunately, that continuedduring September only. After that it decreased again. Now Toadstool price is 260.
Chart:
Conclusion: Toadstool became 28% cheaper.
Final remarks Mostly, all the elements’ prices were growing up for a while but then almost all of them fell down. They were getting cheaper till September. During September the situation stabilized. But it was a temporary situation and since October elements have been losing their prices. Overall, total price loss is around 30%.
First of all, changes in elements’ prices affected enchanting. Therefore, let’s count how expensive enchanting was before the announcement and how expensive it is now.
We can definitely say that enchanting is more available now. Prices are still pretty scary but they are much cheaper now.
Besides that, due to changes in Toadstool price, this announcement affected portals. Now portals’ using will cost you 100 cheaper.